In 2014-15, the NBA’s highest-paid player — Kobe Bryant — made $23.5 million. In 2023-24, that salary, when adjusted for inflation, would have ranked as the league’s 43rd highest.

The NBA salary cap has nearly doubled over the past decade. The national TV deal that the league finalized in 2014 was a central driver of that explosion. The NBA went from receiving $930 million annually in national rights fees payments to $2.6 billion — a 2.8x increase.

Soon, the annual payout the NBA receives from its national TV partners is set to go up by a similar multiple again. According to Bloomberg, the NBA is close to finalizing a national TV deal worth $76 billion over 11 years. If those numbers are accurate, that would amount to a $6.9 billion annual payout  — a 2.7x increase compared to the previous deal.

These are boom times for the NBA, so much so that within a decade, it’s conceivable certain players are making more than $100 million a year.  

Maximum contracts in the NBA are determined as a percentage of the salary cap. The best players sign deals worth between 25% and 35% of the salary cap depending on a combination of their accolades and years of service.

Last summer, Jaylen Brown signed a five-year deal with the Boston Celtics worth $286 million. It was the richest contract in NBA history. Brown made $49.4 million this season. In 2028-29 — the final year of the deal — the Celtics will owe Brown $65.1 million. 

While those numbers might seem eye-popping now, they will be dwarfed by what is coming. In July, Jayson Tatum will be able to sign a five-year deal worth $338 million. Next summer, Luka Doncic will be able to sign a contract extension with the Dallas Mavericks for $346 million.

ESPN’s Bobby Marks predicted that Doncic will “probably” become the first NBA player to make $80 million per year. Doncic’s next payday could be even bigger if the NBA hadn’t instituted cap smoothing in its most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement. Smoothing means the NBA salary cap can only increase by a maximum of 10% every year. The national TV deal alone should guarantee those 10% bumps for years on end.

Marks, the former Nets executive turned media analyst, told the New York Post earlier this month that the NBA salary cap could jump to more than $300 million by 2032. If that projection is accurate, supermax eligible players would earn more than $100 million in every year of their deals. 

LeBron James has made close to half a billion dollars in salary in his career. Is it possible that Victor Wembanyama can make $1 billion solely on salary by the time his career is through? 

‘It feels like all the money in the world’

In 2022, the New Orleans Pelicans gave Zion Williamson a five-year extension worth $197 million. That was an enormous deal for a player who had suited up in 85 games prior to signing it. 

The Pelicans stuffed the deal with all sorts of stipulations to ensure they weren’t on the hook financially if Williamson’s availability issues never improved.

As players’ salaries continue to explode, I wonder if teams will increasingly seek to indemnify themselves with games-played requirements. It seems unlikely that contracts worth $300 million or $400 million will all come with no strings attached.

This past season, Bradley Beal earned $46.7 million in salary and played in 53 games. Jimmy Butler, who earned a $45.2 million salary, played in 60 games, much to Pat Riley’s chagrin. Ben Simmons has played in 57 games over the past two seasons while collecting $73.3 million in salary. This feels unsustainable.

In an appearance on Gilbert Arenas’ podcast last summer, Williamson was honest that the money he was making in the NBA had made him complacent. 

“It’s hard, man,” Williamson said. “I’m 20, 22. Have all the money in the world. It feels like all the money in the world. It’s hard. I’m at that point now because of certain things, I’m putting back the wisdom around me. I don’t want to say older — because they’re defensive — but I’m putting people around me with wisdom. Put me on game to certain things. And just go from there.”

To Williamson’s credit, he played in 70 games this past season. It was a step in the right direction. But he still has a lot to prove.

NBA teams can already lavish deals worth a quarter of a billion dollars on players. In the next decade, the richest NBA contracts will be worth half a billion dollars. The national TV rights deal the league is about to sign is going to make all the money multiply again.